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Tropical Storm Carlos Public Advisory Number 7
2021-06-14 10:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 ...CARLOS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 127.8W ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 127.8 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the west-southwest or west is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days, and Carlos is forecast to become a tropical depression later today, and degenerate to a remnant low by late Tuesday or Wednesday. Carlos is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-06-14 10:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-06-14 10:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140832 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.2N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 10.2N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.2N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 10.5N 134.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 11.0N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 11.5N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 127.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-14 07:42:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 140542 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos, located almost 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is expected to form by late this week a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-14 07:41:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 140540 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A large area of cloudiness and showers located over the Bay of Campeche is associated with a broad low pressure area. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form late in the week when the system begins to move slowly northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system is located about 100 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina. Satellite and radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated near the center this morning. Furthermore, recent satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become better defined, although the system is still interacting with a frontal boundary. The low is forecast to move northeastward for the next few days while passing over or near the warm Gulf Stream today and Tuesday, which could allow for some tropical development to occur while the system moves away from the United States. The low should move over colder waters south of Nova Scotia by early Wednesday, ending any opportunity for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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