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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-06-14 04:36:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 579 WTPZ23 KNHC 140236 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 127.1W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 127.1W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 126.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.3N 127.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.9N 128.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.5N 130.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.2N 131.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.2N 132.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.3N 133.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 11.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 11.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 127.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-14 01:16:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 132316 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche is associated with a broad low pressure area, and the system has changed little in organization since earlier today. Some slow development is possible during the next few days while the low meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form late in the week while the system begins to move slowly northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 150 miles south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move northeastward for the next few days near the Gulf Stream waters, which could allow for some tropical development to occur while it moves away from the United States. The low should be over cold waters south of Nova Scotia by midweek, ending its development chances. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-14 01:13:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 132313 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos, located over 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is expected to form by late this week a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Carlos Graphics
2021-06-13 22:38:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 20:38:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 20:38:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-06-13 22:38:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132038 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Deep convection has managed to persist over the center of Carlos throughout the day today, although the appearance of this convection has become more ragged as the day has progressed. The blended CI values from TAFB and SAB suggest the system still has an intensity of 45 kt. A recent ASCAT overpass only partially captured the circulation with peak wind vectors of 39 kt. Compensating for possible undersampling by the instrument over only a portion of such a compact cyclone, maintaining 45 kt seems reasonable for the initial advisory intensity. Dry and stable air lies just to the north and west of Carlos, and occasional intrusions of this air into the cyclone's circulation could disrupt convection. However, the overnight diurnal convective maximum could overcome these intrusions over the next couple of nights. Therefore, only slight weakening is indicated through that time period. By 48 h, Carlos is expected to move into the stable airmass which should further disrupt its convection, causing additional weakening. By late in the forecast period the cyclone is forecast to be near or have crossed the 26 degree C SST isotherm. This should cause any remaining convection to gradually dissipate. Although not shown in the official forecast, it is possible Carlos will degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period, as suggested by the GFS. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very near the various multi-model consensus solutions. Carlos is beginning to show signs of slowing and turning to the left, with the initial motion now 260/6 kt. Model guidance remains in good agreement through 48 h, with the storm slowing and turning west-southwest as a mid-level ridge becomes oriented SW-NE to the north of the cyclone. There is still a vast amount of track guidance spread beyond 72 h, but not as much as earlier today. The GFS, which continues to be the easternmost solution has shifted well west of its previous track, showing Carlos turning northwest in a few days in response to a building ridge to its east, and weakening ridge to the north. The remaining guidance maintains the ridge to the north and shows Carlos turning west by midweek, then west-northwest by late this week. The official NHC forecast is near the previous one through 48 h. Beyond 48 h, large adjustments were required to accommodate the continuing westward trends in the guidance. Despite the abrupt shift in the official forecast for the latter half of the period, it remains well east of the consensus and the majority of available track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 11.7N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 11.4N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 11.0N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 10.6N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 10.3N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 10.3N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 10.7N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 11.4N 132.7W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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