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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-06-13 19:41:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 131741 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Satellite images indicate that the weak area of low pressure previously located about a hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico has dissipated. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for the low to re-develop, and therefore formation of a tropical cyclone is not expected. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early this week. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form by late this week a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some gradual development is possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Carlos Graphics

2021-06-13 16:49:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 14:49:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 15:22:31 GMT

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Tropical Storm Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2021-06-13 16:48:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 131448 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 12(25) 2(27) X(27) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-06-13 16:48:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131448 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Deep convection has persisted over the center of Carlos throughout the night and a new convective burst with cloud tops of -60 to -70 degrees C is occuring over the estimated center location. A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support increasing the initial intensity to 45 kt. This seems reasonable, as an earlier ASCAT-B overpass had several vectors of 40-41 kt, and the vortex likely has spun up further due to the ongoing deep convection. Carlos continues to move west at around 7 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. This ridge is forecast to become oriented northeast to southwest later today and prevail over the next couple days which should cause the cyclone to move slowly west-southwestward. After 48 h the models diverge significantly in their track solutions, with the GFS and ECMWF turning the system abruptly northward, while most of the other guidance has a more westward then west-northwestward motion beyond 72 h. There is a mid- to upper-level low currently located west of Mexico that the models are handling differently. The easternmost track solutions for Carlos weaken this feature more quickly and replace it with a ridge to the east of Carlos, while the western solutions keep the feature around, delaying the more poleward motion of the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 48 h, but is shifted west thereafter. Still, the NHC forecast track is well east of the consensus after 48 h. Needless to say the track forecast confidence beyond day 2 is low. Northerly shear of 10-15 kt and the proximity to dry and stable mid-level air to its north should cause periodic weakening of the storm's deep convection, which would prevent any further strengthening, and Carlos is expected to hold its current intensity for the next couple of days. Thereafter, regardless of the western or eastern track model solutions, Carlos is expected to encounter an even drier and more stable airmass and cooler sea surface temperatures. This should cause a weakening trend to begin by mid-week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 11.8N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 11.6N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 11.1N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 10.7N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 10.4N 128.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 10.4N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 11.0N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 12.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 15.2N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Summary for Tropical Storm Carlos (EP3/EP032021)

2021-06-13 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CARLOS STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 the center of Carlos was located near 11.8, -126.0 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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