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Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-06-14 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 142034 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Two (AT2/AL022021)
2021-06-14 22:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 the center of Two was located near 35.5, -72.0 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Two Public Advisory Number 2
2021-06-14 22:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 142033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 72.0W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 72.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph, and this general motion is expected through Wednesday with increasing forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight and could continue to strengthen on Tuesday. The system is expected to become a post-tropical low and dissipate on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-06-14 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 142033 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 72.0W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 72.0W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.5N 68.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 40.9N 62.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 45.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 72.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-14 21:14:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 141914 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Two, located about a hundred miles east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in association with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A strong tropical wave located several hundred miles south- southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is maintaining a large but disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days before a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Blake
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