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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-14 13:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 141132 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos, located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is expected to form by late this week a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-14 11:01:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 140901 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the low-pressure system offshore the North Carolina coast. Updated: A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system is located about 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Satellite and radar data indicate that thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become more concentrated near the center of the low early this morning, and environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation. If this recent development trend continues, then a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form later today while the system moves northeastward away from the United States. The low will move over colder waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A large area of cloudiness and showers located over the Bay of Campeche is associated with a broad low pressure area. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form late in the week when the system begins to move slowly northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Carlos Graphics
2021-06-14 10:36:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Jun 2021 08:36:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Jun 2021 08:36:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-14 10:36:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140835 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The satellite presentation of Carlos has continued to erode early this morning, with only three remnant convective cells noted rotating around the center. As a result, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have fallen sharply. Thus, the initial intensity has also been lowered to 35 kt, which could be generous. The initial motion estimate is 255/06 kt. Carlos is forecast by the global and regional models to be steered west-southwestward to westward throughout the 5-day period by a strong low- to mid-level subtropical ridge situated to its north and northwest. The latest model guidance has come into much better agreement on this track scenario, especially compared to this time yesterday, and the new NHC track forecast follows suit and lies close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus track models. Although sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain warm enough to support a tropical cyclone, the continued ingestion of cooler, drier, and more stable air that now completely surrounds Carlos is forecast to continue to erode the central deep convection, with the cyclone weakening a tropical depression later today. By 36-48h, southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is expected to hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos degenerating into a remnant low. Although there will likely be periodic short-lived bursts of convection, especially at night, the general trend should be gradual weakening throughout the 120-h forecast period, perhaps even faster than indicated by the official intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 11.4N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 11.2N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 10.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 10.2N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z 10.2N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 10.5N 134.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 11.0N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z 11.5N 137.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-14 10:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 the center of Carlos was located near 11.4, -127.8 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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