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Tropical Storm Hernan Graphics
2026-08-14 05:07:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2026 03:07:28 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 5
2026-08-14 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140232 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Convection associated with Hernan has fallen apart during the past several hours, with only some cirrus debris clouds near the center, though there is a large area of thunderstorm well to the northeast. Assuming some spin down of the winds from an earlier scatterometer pass, the initial intensity is set to 35 kt. Gradual weakening is anticipated due to continued strong shear, though it could be offset somewhat by the system moving across warmer waters. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, which is near the consensus. Models suggest no deep convection will occur after 24 hours, so remnant low status is indicated thereafter. Hernan remains headed slowly southward as a low-level ridge builds between Tropical Storms Hernan and Lala. Hernan should turn gradually southwestward and westward due to the ridge between the tropical cyclones weakening and the large-scale eastern Pacific high providing a more westward steering current. The latest guidance is faster and a bit south of the last cycle, and the official forecast is adjusted in that direction. The global models show the cyclone opening up into a trough in about 3 days, close to the time the remnants enter the Central Pacific. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 16.8N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 16.2N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 15.8N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 15.4N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 15.0N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1200Z 15.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 5
2026-08-14 04:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 ...HERNAN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 132.0W ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 132.0 West. Hernan is moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a turn towards the south-southwest on Friday. A gradual turn to the west is forecast on Saturday with that motion continuing through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Hernan is forecast to become a tropical depression on Friday and a post-tropical cyclone early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Hernan (EP3/EP082026)
2026-08-14 04:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 the center of Hernan was located near 16.8, -132.0 with movement S at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2026-08-14 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2026 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category:Transportation and Logistics