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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-14 20:57:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 141857 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos, located just over 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-14 20:36:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 141836 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Two, located about a hundred miles east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in association with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A strong tropical wave located several hundred miles south- southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is maintaining a large but disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days before a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-14 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 the center of Carlos was located near 11.3, -128.6 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-06-14 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141442 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Satellite and radar images show that the low pressure area that NHC has been following since yesterday off the coast of North Carolina has become better organized, with a small central dense overcast over the center and more prominent banding features. The low also has advanced ahead of a nearby diffuse stationary front, with that boundary lying northwest of the center. Considering the small core of the low, ample deep convection, satellite pattern, and that the low is feeding off of the thunderstorm activity (and not the front) -- it is now classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is our best estimate assuming strengthening from the 20-25 kt overnight ASCAT and surface observations. The depression is moving northeastward at about 18 kt. A large mid-latitude trough digging across eastern North America should cause the cyclone to continue moving generally northeastward, but faster, over the next couple of days. In about 48 hours, the system is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low. Model guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast lies near the track consensus. The depression has about 24 hours over marginally warm waters in low-to-moderate shear to strengthen before it moves north of the Gulf Stream and decays. Almost all of the intensity guidance shows the system becoming a tropical storm tonight, and considering the healthy initial structure, the official forecast follows that guidance. The low should lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours due to very cold waters and dissipate near Newfoundland in about 2 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 35.0N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 36.6N 70.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 39.8N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 43.6N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Carlos Public Advisory Number 8
2021-06-14 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141431 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 ...CARLOS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 128.6W ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 128.6 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so followed by a turn to the west. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Carlos is expected to become a tropical depression later today and then degenerate to a remnant low by midweek. Carlos is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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