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Summary for Tropical Storm Bill (AT2/AL022021)
2021-06-15 11:01:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BILL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Jun 15 the center of Bill was located near 38.5, -67.2 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-15 07:36:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 150536 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Bill, located more than 300 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in association with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next few days. Thereafter, a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds will limit chances of formation while the wave moves over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bill are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bill are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-15 07:17:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 150517 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Carlos, located more than 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form later this week a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Tropical Storm Bill Graphics
2021-06-15 04:39:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 02:39:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 03:22:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bill Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-06-15 04:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150238 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bill Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 14 2021 Deep convection has increased in a cluster to the northeast of the estimated center. Scatterometer measurements showed a couple of 40-41 kt vectors over the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. On this basis, the estimated intensity is increased to 40 kt, which makes this the second tropical storm of the season, albeit a rather high-latitude one. The system is in an environment of fairly strong southwesterly shear, but the diffluent upper-level flow has apparently contributed to some strengthening in a seemingly hostile environment. Some additional short-term strengthening could occur but by 36 hours, the cyclone should merge with a baroclinic zone while approaching Newfoundland and become extratropical. This transition is also shown by the FSU cyclone phase analyses of the GFS model fields. Bill is moving fairly swiftly northeastward, or 055/20 kt. The track forecast appears to be straightforward. The flow ahead of a large mid-tropospheric trough near the United States east coast should accelerate the system northeastward for the next day or two, and until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and not far from the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 36.7N 69.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 38.9N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 42.6N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 46.5N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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