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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-16 02:00:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 152359 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook..Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Corrected genesis probabilities and category for the Gulf low For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the next day or so, and any development should be slow to occur during that time period. However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Showers and thunderstorms continued to diminish in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development of this system is no longer anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-16 01:21:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 152321 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Carlos, located over 1800 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a broad trough of low pressure. A low-pressure system is expected to develop along this trough within the next couple of days as a tropical wave moves westward across the area. Environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development of this system later this week, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Depression Carlos Graphics
2021-06-15 22:40:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 20:40:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 21:28:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-06-15 22:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152039 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Dry, stable air and strong southwesterly shear continue to take their toll on Carlos. The only deep convection associated with the depression consists of a very small cluster just south of the center, and another about 90 n mi northwest of the center. This meager amount of shower activity is not sufficient to be considered organized deep convection. Therefore if no significant convection develops soon, then Carlos will be declared a remnant low. Despite the lack of convection, a pair recent ASCAT overpasses showed several wind vectors of 27-30 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression is not forecast to improve, so the vortex should gradually spin down, with dissipation expected within a few days. Carlos is moving just south of due west at 8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the remainder of the cyclone's existence, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed and turn to the right, as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 9.8N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 9.6N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 9.4N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-06-15 22:39:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152039 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 5 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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