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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-15 01:28:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 142328 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Two, located about a couple of hundred miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in association with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A strong tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and a few showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days before a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-15 01:16:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 142316 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Carlos, located almost 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Carlos Graphics
2021-06-14 22:43:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Jun 2021 20:43:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Jun 2021 20:43:49 GMT
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-06-14 22:42:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142042 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The convective burst that occurred this morning near the center of Carlos has been gradually dissipating throughout the day. Satellite imagery shows dry and stable air being entrained into the circulation and the cyclone's center has become partially exposed. The latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB indicates that Carlos has weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression, and this will be the initial advisory intensity. Carlos is moving west-southwest at 8 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is in good agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several days, forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek. The latest NHC track forecast was adjusted to be a little faster and to the south of the previous one to better match the trend in the guidance, and is now near the northern end of the multi-model consensus. The depression is forecast to continue to traverse a dry and stable airmass for the remainder of the week, and ongoing intrusions of this air should inhibit the cyclone from producing long-lived convection. The lack of deep convection should cause Carlos to continue a slow weakening trend and eventually degenerate into a remnant low. The official NHC forecast calls for this transition to to occur by 48 h. However, it could occur sooner than this if organized deep convection fails to regenerate. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 10.9N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 10.5N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 10.1N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 9.9N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 9.9N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 9.9N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 10.1N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 10.3N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-06-14 22:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 142042 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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carlos
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