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Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-09 10:50:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 08:50:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 09:24:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-09 10:49:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090849 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Deep convection associated with the cyclone has increased during the past several hours, particularly in a band in the southeast quadrant. Late-arriving ASCAT data valid around 0330 UTC revealed that the cyclone's low-level wind structure was still somewhat elongated in a SSW-NNE orientation. That said, the ASCAT data also showed a few believable 30-35 kt vectors in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. That supports an intensity of 35 kt, making Elida the 5th tropical storm of the 2020 eastern North Pacific season. Even with the assistance of the ASCAT pass, it has been difficult to track the center of the tropical storm this morning. The center of Elida appears to have jumped somewhat northward since last night, and further reformations of the center will be possible until the system consolidates some more. The northward adjustment in the position resulted in a slight adjustment to the track forecast in that direction, but overall the tropical storm is still forecast to move generally west-northwestward for the next several days, steered by a mid-level ridge extending over northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. A westward turn is likely near the end of the forecast period as Elida weakens and low-level tradewinds become the dominant steering mechanism. Overall the models are in excellent agreement and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. All of the statistical and regional hurricane intensity models forecast Elida to strengthen and become a hurricane within 48 h. Since the cyclone does not appear to have a tight inner-core yet, only modest strengthening is forecast for the first 12 h, followed by a faster rate after that. The extent of strengthening is still highly uncertain, and the guidance ranges from a minimal to major hurricane. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and the multi-model consensus. Elida is forecast to weaken later this week after it reaches cooler waters to the north. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 15.8N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 106.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 19.7N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 21.9N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 21.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-08-09 10:40:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 390 FOPZ14 KNHC 090840 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 71(73) 8(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 39(39) 8(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 11(46) 1(47) X(47) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 38(81) X(81) X(81) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 13(49) X(49) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-09 10:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 the center of Elida was located near 15.8, -104.1 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-09 10:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 303 WTPZ34 KNHC 090840 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 104.1W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 104.1 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to continue on a west-northwestward heading for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane within the next two days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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