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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-10 07:29:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 100528 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elida, located more than 200 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system moves slowly westward toward the central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Another area of low pressure is forecast to develop well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle of the week. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and this system could also become a tropical depression by late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-10 04:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 02:37:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 02:37:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-10 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100235 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Trends in satellite imagery over the past several hours indicate that Elida continues to quickly increase in organization. There has been an expanding central dense overcast, with the center of circulation presumed to be underneath cloud tops of about -70 C. Satellite intensity estimates TAFB and SAB as well as those from UW-CIMSS support increasing the initial intensity to 55 kt. Environmental conditions favor rapid intensification over the next 24 h or so. The latest SHIPS RI index indicates a better than 30 percent chance of Elida strengthening by 30 kt in the next 24 h, and based on the convective trends, the official forecast closely follows this guidance. By 48 h, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm, and begin to enter a progressively drier and more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause steady weakening to occur. By 96 h, Elida is forecast to have been over waters cooler than 25 C for nearly 36 h. And as a result, the simulated satellite imagery by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models all indicate that the deep convection will dissipate by that time. Therefore, Elida is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the 96 h forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from from previous one, is close to the HCCA model intensity guidance for the next couple of days, then trends towards the SHIPS guidance thereafter. Elida continues to move west-northwestward at 13 k, steered by a mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico to the east Pacific. This pattern is forecast to remain in place for the next few days. After that time, a slower westward or west-southwestward motion is expected as the weakening cyclone is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The model track forecasts are in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC forecast track is in the middle of the consensus track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.8N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.7N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 19.6N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.3N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.0N 117.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 22.1N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 22.0N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0000Z 21.1N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-10 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 the center of Elida was located near 17.8, -107.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 5
2020-08-10 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 100233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 ...ELIDA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 107.4W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 107.4 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane by Monday morning. Steady weakening is forecast begin Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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