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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-08-10 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 100233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.4W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.4W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 112.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 114.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 117.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 22.0N 124.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 21.1N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 107.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-08-10 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 100233 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 20 46(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 110W 50 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 110W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 8 82(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 53(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 27(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X 6( 6) 76(82) 9(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 50(51) 12(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 28(28) 12(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 29(43) 1(44) X(44) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-10 01:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 092339 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. However, recent satellite-derived wind data indicates that the circulation remains elongated. Environmental conditions appear conducive enough to support additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-10 01:21:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 092321 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elida, located a couple of hundred miles south of the southwest coast of Mexico. An area of low pressure will likely form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system moves slowly westward toward the central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Another area of low pressure is expected to form well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle of the week. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and this system could also become a tropical depression late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-09 22:43:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 20:43:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 21:24:53 GMT
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