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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-09 19:27:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 091727 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. However, satellite-derived wind data from earlier this morning indicated that the circulation remains elongated. Environmental conditions appear conducive enough to support additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-09 19:27:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 091727 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elida, located a couple of hundred miles south of the southwest coast of Mexico. An area of low pressure will likely form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system moves slowly westward toward the central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Another area of low pressure is expected to form well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle of the week. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and this system could also become a tropical depression late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Elida are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Elida are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-09 16:38:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 14:38:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 14:38:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-09 16:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Based on a 1128 UTC SSMIS pass, Elida appears to have developed a well-defined low-level structure, with a clear center region surrounded by a cyan ring in the 37-GHz channel. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm strength, however the latest UW-CIMSS ADT up to 45 kt. Given the improving microwave structure, I've opted to go on the higher side of the intensity estimates, initializing the maximum wind speed at 40 kt. The overnight tracking of Elida's center appears to have been really good, as the recent microwave pass and first-light visible imagery show it to be very close to where we thought it was. Elida is moving west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends from Texas west-southwestward across northern Mexico and over the Pacific. This ridge should keep Elida on a west-northwestward track for the next 3 days or so. After that time, a weakening Elida should be steered by lower-level flow and will begin to move more slowly toward the west on days 4 and 5. This forecast unreasoning is unchanged from before, and since there are no errant track models that deviate from this scenario, the new NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Elida's structure revealed in the recent microwave pass that the cyclone is likely primed for continued intensification. With low shear, sufficient ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level moisture, Elida is expected to strengthen to hurricane intensity around this time tomorrow, with a peak intensity occurring in about 2 days. Given the new set of intensity guidance, the NHC forecast has been raised during the first 2-3 days--not as high as the HCCA model but very close to the HWRF and Florida State Superensemble. Rapid intensification is not out of the question given Elida's structure and environment, with the SHIPS RI guidance showing a 1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours. After 48 hours, Elida will begin to move over cooler waters, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause a rather quick weakening trend. In fact, global models show all of Elida's deep convection dissipating--if not the entire system itself--by day 5, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to be post tropical by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.4N 105.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-09 16:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY AND BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 the center of Elida was located near 16.4, -105.4 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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