je.st
news
Tag: tropical
Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-10 16:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 14:37:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 14:37:46 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
elida
Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-10 16:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 101436 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Elida is very close to reaching hurricane strength. A 1218 UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed a nearly enclosed eyewall that was somewhat eroded on the west side, possibly due to a bit of north-northwesterly shear (as shown by the SHIPS diagnostics). Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, while the objective guidance from UW-CIMSS is about 5-10 kt higher. Because of the gradually improving structure in microwave imagery, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is a blend of the intensity estimates. Located along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge which extends from the south-central U.S. southwestward into the Pacific, Elida is moving west-northwestward at 300/13 kt. Confidence in the track forecast remains high since this ridge will be the main driving force for the next 2-3 days, keeping Elida on a west-northwestward but gradually slowing trajectory. In about 3 days, a weaker Elida will turn westward and slow down even further due to lighter low-level steering winds. The spread in the guidance does increase beyond 60 hours, particularly with the GFS showing a significant poleward motion, but this unlikely scenario appears to be due to the model tracker deviating from the path of the surface circulation. The new NHC track forecast is nudged only slightly north of the previous forecast, mainly due to a continuation of Elida's recent trajectory. This new forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the NOAA-HCCA and TVDG consensus approaches. The SHIPS model suggests that whatever shear is still affecting Elida should die down within the next 12 hours, and the storm has about 24 hours left over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. These conditions should allow for continued strengthening over the next day or so, with rapid intensification still a possibility. For that reason, the NHC intensity forecast is just above nearly all of the guidance at 24 hours. After 24 hours, gradual weakening should commence as Elida moves over cooler waters, and the rate of weakening is likely to accelerate by day 3 once southwesterly shear increases. Elida is expected to become a remnant low by day 4 and dissipate by day 5, in accordance with the solutions shown by the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.9N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.7N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.5N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 21.3N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 22.0N 119.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 22.5N 121.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 22.7N 122.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-08-10 16:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 101436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA SOCORRO 34 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) ISLA SOCORRO 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 2 11(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 115W 34 2 74(76) 9(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 20N 115W 50 X 27(27) 14(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 115W 64 X 10(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-10 16:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 the center of Elida was located near 18.9, -109.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
elida
Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-10 16:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 101435 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 ...ELIDA ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 109.8W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 109.8 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, and Elida is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Steady weakening is expected to begin late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [1857] [1858] [1859] [1860] [1861] [1862] [1863] [1864] [1865] [1866] [1867] [1868] [1869] [1870] [1871] [1872] [1873] [1874] [1875] [1876] next »