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Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-09 16:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 091436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 ...ELIDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY AND BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 105.4W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 105.4 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Some weakening could begin late Tuesday or Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-08-09 16:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 091436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 1 32(33) 16(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 52(53) 39(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 9( 9) 60(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 34(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 34(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 67(86) 4(90) X(90) X(90) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 53(55) 9(64) X(64) X(64) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) 7(37) X(37) X(37) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 52(55) 6(61) X(61) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 4(25) X(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-09 16:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 091436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-09 13:41:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 091140 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions could support some development of this system over the next couple of days while it moves westward at 15 mph across the tropical eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-09 13:40:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 091140 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Elida, located a couple of hundred miles south of the southwest coast of Mexico. An area of low pressure will likely form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin later this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual development while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle of the week. Some development is possible thereafter as the system moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Elida are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Elida are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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