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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-01 19:54:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 011754 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of North Carolina, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Nana, located about 100 miles south of Jamaica. A small area of low pressure has formed about midway between the Windward Islands and west Africa. Upper-level winds are marginally conducive for some slow development this week as the system meanders in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in about a day and merge with a disturbance centered about 200 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system is then possible, and this system could become a tropical depression by this weekend while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nana are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nana are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Blake/Carbin
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Tropical Storm Nana Graphics
2020-09-01 19:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 17:53:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 16:52:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-09-01 19:52:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 011752 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM NANA GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 78.4W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern Honduras * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras * Belize A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of Guatemala and the southern Yucatan Peninsula, along with a Hurricane Watch for Belize, later today. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 78.4 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday and likely be approaching the coast of Belize on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nana could become a hurricane just prior to landfall on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, mainly northeast through northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by late Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across northern Honduras, Belize, and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica, and will continue into Wednesday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-01 19:10:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 011710 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 1 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system remains disorganized, and environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for any further development by Thursday while the low moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-01 18:56:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011656 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Special Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the vigorous disturbance south of Jamaica this morning has found that the system has a well-defined, closed circulation center. The aircraft also measured 60 kt at 925 mb in the northeastern quadrant and reliable SFMR surface winds of 45 kt. Based on these data, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nana, the 14th named tropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/14 kt, No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. A strong deep-layer to the north of the system is expected to build slowly westward over the next few days, keeping the disturbance moving in a general west-northwestward to westward direction through 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest shortly thereafter when the system will be inland over Central America. The NHC official forecast track lies close to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected-consensus model HCCA. Nana has developed a well-defined upper-level anticyclone, with outflow gradually improving in all quadrants. Modest northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually subside to less than 10 kt by 48 hours, which should allow for at least some slow but steady strengthening, given that sea-surface temperatures (SST) will be 29.5-30.5 deg C along the track. Some dry air intrusions might hinder development for the next 24 hours or so, but the global and regional models still indicate that the atmosphere will moisten thereafter, and continue to moisten right up until landfall. Based on the higher initial intensity and the mostly favorable environmental conditions expected after 24 hours, the peak forecast intensity has been increased to 65 kt at 48 hours, just prior to landfall. Due to the Nana's expected proximity to Belize in 48 hours, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that country. Additional watches and possible warnings will likely be required later today for Guatemala and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is now forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1700Z 16.6N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.6N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.7N 82.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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