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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-09-02 07:41:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 020541 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 ...NANA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 81.8W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 81.8 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A westward or west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras today and likely be approaching the coast of Belize tonight and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Nana is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight before it reaches the coast of Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Belize by tonight, with hurricane conditions likely over a portion of the area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Mexico and Guatemala by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in Belize and northern Guatemala. 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected across northern Honduras and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and will spread along the coasts of Honduras and Belize today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-02 07:16:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 020516 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 1 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-02 07:15:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 020515 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Omar, located a few hundred miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Tropical Storm Nana, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about midway between the Windward Islands and west Africa have changed little in organization since yesterday evening. Some development of this system is possible this week as it meanders over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa later today and merge with a disturbance centered a couple of hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands in the next day or so. Gradual development of this system is then possible, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nana are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nana are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nana Graphics
2020-09-02 04:47:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 02:47:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 02:47:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-02 04:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020237 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Deep convection redeveloped over the center of Nana during the late afternoon and recent microwave imagery has revealed a small, well-defined low-level eye-like feature, and convective banding around the southwestern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that has provided a couple of center fixes within the past hour or two has measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 62 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 50 kt, which supports an initial intensity of 50 kt. Data from aircraft indicated that the minimum pressure is around 999 mb. Nana is moving westward or 275/16 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should steer it westward over the next day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build west-southwestward and the dynamical models indicate that this will cause Nana to turn west-southwestward by Thursday. On this track, Nana is expected to approach the coast of Belize late Wednesday night or early Thursday, and move inland over Belize and Guatemala later that day. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario but has trended slightly southward, which seems reasonable given that Nana is vertically deep and is more likely to feel the deep-layered east-northeasterly flow. The new NHC track forecast is close to the FSU Superensemble and the HFIP corrected consensus model. The tropical storm is currently within an environment of light to moderate northeasterly shear. This shear does not seem to be strong enough to prevent strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of intensification during that time. This is in agreement with the latest SHIPS model output and the HCCA and HWRF models, and calls for Nana to become a hurricane within 24 hours. The shear is forecast to become more northerly just before landfall, and this is likely to slow the intensification process. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and the low-level circulation is expected to dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by day 3. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.0N 80.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.1N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z 16.5N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1200Z 16.2N 93.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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