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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-02 10:40:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 020840 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 ...NANA CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 82.7W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 82.7 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected today. A westward or west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras today and likely be approaching the coast of Belize tonight and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Nana is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight before it reaches the coast of Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Belize by tonight, with hurricane conditions likely over a portion of the area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Mexico and Guatemala by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday night: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches near the northern Honduras coast, southern and central Belize, northern Guatemala, and the northern portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas. 2 to 4 inches in the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and will spread along the coasts of Honduras and Belize today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-02 10:40:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 020840 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BELIZE CITY 34 2 60(62) 12(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) BELIZE CITY 50 X 16(16) 11(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) BELIZE CITY 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 21 55(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) GUANAJA 50 2 41(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) GUANAJA 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-02 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR TOUGHING IT OUT AGAINST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2 the center of Omar was located near 36.2, -68.7 with movement ENE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-02 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 020839 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER * ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 82.7W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 82.7W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 81.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N 85.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.5N 89.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.1N 93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 82.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Omar Public Advisory Number 7
2020-09-02 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020839 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Omar Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 ...OMAR TOUGHING IT OUT AGAINST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.2N 68.7W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 68.7 West. Omar is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the east is forecast by this evening, with a reduction in forward speed occuring through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Weakening should begin by Thursday, with Omar likely to become a remnant low by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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