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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-09-03 07:26:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 030526 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 2 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The remnants of Atlantic basin Hurricane Nana could emerge over the eastern Pacific waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Friday. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit development through the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward near the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics

2020-09-03 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 02:36:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 03:24:38 GMT

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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-09-03 04:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030233 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 A brief and small burst of convection developed near the center of Omar early this evening, only to be quickly sheared well to the southeast of the exposed low-level center. Any new convection that developed during the day has been smaller in coverage and shorter lived, and this trend is expected to continue. The initial intensity is being held at 30 kt based on a recent ASCAT overpass showing several peak 30-kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle. There is no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. Ongoing wind shear of 40-50 kt should not allow any developing convection to persist near Omar's center, and the depression should degenerate to a remnant low sometime on Thursday. This scenario is in agreement with the global model forecasts. A few days from now, the remnant low should dissipate as it becomes absorbed by a larger approaching mid-latitude frontal system. Omar continues to move east at around 13 kt, to the north of a subtropical ridge. An east or just south-of-east motion is forecast through Friday. After that time, the remnants of Omar should turn east-northeastward to northeastward ahead of the approaching mid-latitude frontal system. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and is also near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 36.1N 64.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/0000Z 35.7N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z 35.5N 58.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 35.9N 57.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 36.5N 56.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2020-09-03 04:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 030233 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)

2020-09-03 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...OMAR BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 2 the center of Omar was located near 36.1, -64.1 with movement E at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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