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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-02 16:48:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021448 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 Although is seems as though we've been predicting it ad nauseam, the persistent, blistering shear has finally begun to dramatically affect the cyclone. What remains of the deep convective cloud mass is separated more than 100 miles east-southeast of the exposed surface circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB using the shear scene-type. Omar's winds should begin to decrease later tonight as the exposed surface center further decouples from the convective mass. A few of the large-scale models show Omar dissipating as soon as Friday, but for this NHC intensity forecast, I'll indicate weakening to a depression Thursday, followed by degeneration to a remnant low in 36 hours, similar to the multi-model consensus intensity aids and the LGEM. Omar's initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 080/11 kt, and is being steered by the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies produced by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue on this general course through Friday. On Saturday, the remnant low is expected to slow a bit, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching frontal boundary moving away from the Canadian Maritimes. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and the new NHC forecast is based on a blend of the HCCA and GFEX consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 36.2N 67.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 36.5N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 36.5N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 36.3N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 36.2N 58.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 36.4N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 37.0N 55.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Nana Graphics
2020-09-02 16:47:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 14:47:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 14:47:21 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-02 16:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BLISTERING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO AFFECT OMAR... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2 the center of Omar was located near 36.2, -67.4 with movement E at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Omar Public Advisory Number 8
2020-09-02 16:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021446 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Omar Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 ...BLISTERING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO AFFECT OMAR... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.2N 67.4W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM NNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 67.4 West. Omar is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast with some reduction in forward speed is forecast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Weakening should begin Thursday, with Omar likely to become a remnant low by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-09-02 16:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 021446 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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