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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-03 01:05:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
834 ABPZ20 KNHC 022304 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Sep 2 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The remnants of Atlantic basin Tropical Storm Nana could emerge over the eastern Pacific waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Friday. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit development through the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward near the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-03 01:04:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 022304 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Omar, located a few hundred miles north of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Nana, located about 150 miles east of Belize City, Belize. An area of low pressure located about midway between the Windward Islands and west Africa is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible this week as it drifts generally westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave, located just off the coast of west Africa, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. The wave is expected to merge with a disturbance centered a couple of hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands toward the end of the week. Gradual development of this system is then possible, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while it moves westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Nana Graphics
2020-09-02 22:41:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 20:41:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 20:41:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-02 22:40:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 20:40:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 20:40:07 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-02 22:38:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022038 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Omar's cloud pattern is rapidly deteriorating, and the surface circulation center has become quite ill-defined. This morning's METOP-A/B scatterometer passes revealed only a few 33 kt winds well to the southeast of the center and it's reasonable to determine that those winds are no longer present. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory and is further supported by the subjective satellite intensity T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The latest global model runs agree with the depression degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hours, or less, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. Dissipation of the remnant low should occur no later than Saturday evening. Omar's initial motion is estimated to be due east, or 090/13 kt, within the mid-latitude westerlies north of a subtropical ridge stretching east to west over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue moving eastward through Friday, although a couple of the global models are showing a track a bit more east-southeastward. Around the 60 hour period, the remnant low is expected to reduce in forward speed, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching baroclinic system entering the northwest Atlantic. The NHC forecast is nudged just a little to the right of the previous one, and lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 36.1N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 36.1N 63.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 35.7N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 35.7N 57.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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