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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-01 13:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 011132 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Sep 1 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located about 850 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system remains disorganized, and environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for any further development by Thursday while the low moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-01 13:26:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
176 ABNT20 KNHC 011126 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located more than 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. A well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave continues to move quickly westward across the central Caribbean Sea. Although the disturbance does not yet have a well-defined circulation center, ship observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are occurring in the northern portion of wave to the southeast of Jamaica, which will spread near or just south of Jamaica later this morning and into this afternoon. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form during the next day or so before the system reaches Central America Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible on Jamaica today, and interests there, as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate the disturbance. Potential tropical cyclone or tropical cyclone advisories will likely be issued later today, along with watches and warnings. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics
2020-09-01 10:36:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 08:36:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 08:36:41 GMT
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fifteen
Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-01 10:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS... ...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IT HEADS OUT TO SEA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 the center of Fifteen was located near 34.1, -74.4 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-01 10:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 023 WTNT35 KNHC 010835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS... ...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IT HEADS OUT TO SEA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 74.4W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 74.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the east by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move away from the North Carolina coast today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Although the depression still has a small chance to become a tropical storm later today, no significant changes in strength are expected during the next couple of days. The system could degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression will continue to affect portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina through this evening, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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