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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-01 10:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 024 WTNT45 KNHC 010835 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Deep convection remains displaced to the east and southeast of the depression's low-level center due to increasing west-northwesterly shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt, with no appreciable structural changes having occurred since last evening's ASCAT pass, which showed 25-30 kt winds. The initial motion is toward the northeast, or 050/11 kt, with the depression becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies north of the subtropical ridge. Forecast guidance agrees that the cyclone will turn east-northeastward and then eastward during the next 2-3 days, moving farther out into the Atlantic, although there is greater-than-normal spread among the track models mainly due to speed differences. In particular, the ECMWF is one of the fastest models, while the GFS and UKMET hang the cyclone back to the west a little longer. Since many of the consensus aids, including HCCA, are closer to the faster model solutions, the NHC track forecast leans toward the quicker side of things. UW-CIMSS analyses indicate that the shear has increased to 20-25 kt, and it's only expected to get stronger from here. Some slight strengthening of the depression can't be ruled out during the next 12-24 hours while the shear vector is aligned with the storm motion, but by this time tomorrow the shear is likely to be as strong as 35-45 kt out of the northwest. Therefore, little change in strength is now indicated in the official forecast for the next day or two. The shear magnitude is expected to peak in about 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to be a remnant low at that point, if it hasn't become one already. The GFS dissipates the low in about 48 hours, but since the other models hang onto it a little bit longer, the NHC forecast shows dissipation by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 34.1N 74.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 35.0N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 36.9N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 37.5N 63.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1800Z 37.7N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z 37.8N 58.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z 39.2N 53.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-01 10:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 016 FONT15 KNHC 010835 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-01 10:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010834 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 74.4W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 74.4W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.9N 67.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.5N 63.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.7N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.8N 58.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 39.2N 53.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 74.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-01 07:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 010539 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a little over a hundred miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. A seemingly well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is moving quickly westward across the central Caribbean Sea, but satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago again showed that the system has not developed a closed surface wind circulation. The wave is, however, producing an area of winds near tropical storm force south of the coast of Haiti, which will move near or south of Jamaica later this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches Central America Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible on Jamaica today, and interests there, as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-01 07:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 010536 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 31 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located about 850 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development during the next day or two, and the chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone appears to be decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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