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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2021-06-18 10:59:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 180859 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 18(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 X 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 30(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE

Tags: number speed wind tropical

Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-06-18 10:58:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 180858 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES SOUTHWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... *CABO CORRIENTES TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 105.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.1N 105.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.4N 106.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 101.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics

2021-06-18 10:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 08:56:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 08:56:05 GMT

Tags: potential graphics tropical cyclone

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-06-18 10:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180855 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 The system became a little better organized overnight at the northern end of its associated broad surface trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Satellite images show increasing deep convection along with more curvature to the low clouds, suggesting that the ill-defined center of this system is trying to re-form farther to the north. Since it still lacks a well-defined center, the system remains a potential tropical cyclone. Recent scatterometer data indicate that winds have increased to at least 30 kt and have grown over a larger area on the east side of the circulation. The initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/12. There is fair agreement that this northward motion, with some re-formation of the center, will continue as the system remains steered by a subtropical ridge to the southeast. The low should then turn northeastward and move across the southeastern U.S. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast and the guidance is in fairly good agreement. It should also be noted that model "spaghetti" plots are not doing a good job tracking the center of this system, and could give a very misleading impression on the forecast track if used by themselves. There is still a lot of shear over the Gulf of Mexico and that should continue through landfall. However, the system is somewhat hybrid in nature and the shear shouldn't prevent its intensification to a tropical storm later today (possibly with subtropical characteristics). Model guidance is consistent with slow strengthening until landfall, and the new forecast is close to the previous one. After landfall, most of the global models show a strong band of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds persisting on the southeastern side. The expected large distance from the center necessitates extending the Tropical Storm Warning into the northwestern Florida panhandle. The system will likely dissipate in about 3 days over the southeastern United States. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning today and continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast with flood impacts spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin today in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 25.2N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/1800Z 27.0N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 19/0600Z 29.2N 91.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 31.0N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0600Z 32.6N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1800Z 34.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion potential tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2021-06-18 10:55:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 114 FONT13 KNHC 180855 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 26(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X 3( 3) 29(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 X 6( 6) 20(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 10(10) 27(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 9 35(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 13(13) 16(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number potential speed wind

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