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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-06-18 16:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 181439 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM MORGAN CITY WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 91.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 91.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 91.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.2N 90.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.3N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.1N 88.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.4N 86.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.5N 83.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 91.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-18 13:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 181139 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Jun 18 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Four-E, located a couple of hundred miles south of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Four-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Four-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2021-06-18 13:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 11:37:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 09:28:26 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042021)
2021-06-18 13:37:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Four-E was located near 14.5, -102.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 1A
2021-06-18 13:37:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 181137 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 700 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 102.0W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 102.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this forward motion is expected to continue with a turn to the northwest and north-northwest over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next 36 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four-E will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by the depression will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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