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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-10-02 19:45:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 021745 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Five, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea, with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting portions of the ABC Islands, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Five are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Five are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-10-02 19:45:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 021745 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 2 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Marie, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico this weekend. Some development of this system is possible early next week while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg

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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Graphics

2020-10-02 19:41:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 17:41:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 15:25:20 GMT

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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Graphics

2020-10-02 17:01:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 15:01:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 15:01:46 GMT

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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-10-02 16:56:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021456 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Visible satellite images show that cloudiness and showers associated with the low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea have become significantly better organized since yesterday, with convective banding features becoming prominent. Moreover, low cloud motions suggest that a closed circulation has become better defined. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Twenty-Five at this time. The initial intensity estimate is 30 kt based on Dvorak T-numbers, but an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today to provide a better intensity estimate. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, near 30 deg C, and vertical shear should remain low for at least the next couple of days, so the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm by the time it nears the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow. The main impediment to strengthening over the next few days should be the interaction with land. Given the uncertainties about how far offshore the center will be over the next several days, the official intensity forecast is conservative. Since there is still a lot of scatter in the center fixes, the initial motion estimate, 315/8 kt, is rather uncertain. For the next couple of days, the system is expected to move northwestward to north-northwestward on the southwestern edge of a mid-level high pressure area. This would take the center near or over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. After about 48 hours, the steering currents are not well-defined and there is considerable spread in the track models. At this time, it appears the cyclone should move slowly westward over the latter part of the forecast period in response to weak ridging over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast is near or a little north of the corrected and simple model consensus predictions. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches have been issued for a portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.1N 84.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.9N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 20.6N 87.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1200Z 21.4N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 22.0N 87.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 22.0N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 21.5N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 21.5N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

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