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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-03 07:36:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 030536 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting portions of the ABC Islands, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves westward or west- northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Shower activity has increased since yesterday in association with a tropical wave located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of this system may occur during the next several days as it moves generally westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-03 07:28:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 030528 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Marie, located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next couple of days several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another area of low pressure could form south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Gradual development of this system will be possible thereafter while it drifts near or south of southern coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-03 04:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 02:34:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 03:25:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-10-03 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 030232 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 2(15) COZUMEL MX 34 56 20(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 1(78) COZUMEL MX 50 3 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) COZUMEL MX 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BELIZE CITY 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-03 04:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 the center of Gamma was located near 19.1, -86.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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