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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-10-03 16:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 031455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN...INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR * NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN MEXICO INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO PUNTA ALLEN MEXICO * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.3W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.3W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.8N 88.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.2N 88.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.3N 88.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.1N 89.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.0N 93.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 87.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-03 13:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 031149 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting portions of the ABC Islands, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea and then into the southern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph, and some development is possible during the next couple of days before it encounters strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before it too encounters strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-03 13:45:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 11:45:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 09:42:26 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-03 13:44:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 the center of Gamma was located near 19.7, -87.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-10-03 13:44:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031144 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 87.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 87.2 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible before Gamma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula today. After landfall, some weakening is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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