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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 3
2020-10-03 04:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 030231 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...GAMMA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 86.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Gamma moves inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. After landfall, slight weakening or little change in strength is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by Saturday morning, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-10-03 04:31:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030231 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO * WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 86.1W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 86.1W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 85.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.6N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 88.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N 88.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 21.0N 91.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 92.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 86.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-03 01:58:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 23:58:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 21:25:22 GMT
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-03 01:58:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 022358 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Gamma, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea, with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting portions of the ABC Islands, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-03 01:57:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GAMMA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 the center of Gamma was located near 18.8, -85.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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