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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2026-09-08 11:28:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2026 09:28:11 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 29
2026-09-08 10:49:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 2026 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080849 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 2026 The satellite presentation of Marie continues to degrade as the cyclone continues to weaken. What is the left of the deep convection is very minimal and limited to the southeastern quadrant of the storm. The latest TAFB Dvorak fix came in at T2.5/35 kt, and the objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 30-44 kt. The most recent scatterometer pass showed that there are still some 35-kt winds and given that this pass only partially captured the storm, there could still be some stronger winds. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. The storm continues its slow west-northwestward trek with an initial motion estimate of around 300/7 kt. Marie is expected to turn more northwestward and move within the flow between a ridge extending westward from the southwestern U.S. and a cutoff low to the west of the tropical cyclone. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous forecast track, and is close to the corrected model consensus. Marie is expected to move over cooler waters for the next day or so, and based on the decreasing convection, it seems likely that the storm will become post-tropical within the next 24 h. Unless deep convection is able to return to the cyclone soon, Marie's post-tropical transition could occur even earlier than the official forecast. The current NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 25.5N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 26.3N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 27.9N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1800Z 29.8N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0600Z 32.1N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Gibbs
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2026-09-08 10:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 080848 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 30N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 30N 130W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KATZ/GIBBS
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 29
2026-09-08 10:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 2026 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 080848 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 2026 ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO MARIE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 126.6W ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 126.6 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The cyclone is expected to keep this heading for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected for the next couple of days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today or on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Gibbs
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP132026)
2026-09-08 10:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO MARIE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 the center of Marie was located near 25.5, -126.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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