je.st
news
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2026-09-09 23:28:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2026 21:28:32 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2026-09-09 22:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2026 20:41:26 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2026-09-09 22:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 092039 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure (Invest EP96) has developed a more organized circulation, along with persistent convection east of its center. Scatterometry data from around 1700 UTC revealed a slightly elongated but closed circulation with a max wind of around 30 kt. Subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB rated this system at 2.5/2.5, or an intensity at around 35 kt. Given the scatterometry data and satellite imagery, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression 14-E, with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The initial motion of this system was estimated at 285/8 kt, but this is uncertain since the system has only recently formed. Global models depict mid-level ridging building north of the depression, so a primarily west to west-northwest motion is expected over the next several days. By late this weekend into early next week, the guidance depicts a slight weakening in the ridge to the north that will shift the track slightly more west-northwestward, before the ridge amplifies once again and pushes the system west-southwestward. The official track forecast reflects a blend of the HCCA and GDMI, which is on the southern side of the guidance envelope. The depression is expected to enter an environment favorable for gradual strengthening. The SHIPS guidance depicts low vertical wind shear, as well as ample mid-level moisture and favorable SSTs, which should allow the depression to strengthen to a tropical storm tonight or Thursday and into a hurricane later this weekend. The official intensity forecast reflects a slower strengthening trend within the first couple of days, given that scatterometry data still depicts a depression with a slightly elongated center. By the end of the week, however, steady strengthening is forecast, and the NHC prediction lies on the higher end of the guidance envelope given the favorable environment ahead of the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 15.7N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2026-09-09 22:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026 144 FOPZ14 KNHC 092039 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 15(15) 7(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31) 1(32) X(32) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2026-09-09 22:38:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 092038 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] next »