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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2026-09-09 01:30:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000ABPZ20 KNHC 082330TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Tue Sep 8 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Lowell, located a couple of hundred miles north-northwest of the Hawaiian Islands.Well South-Southwest of the Southern Tip of Baja California (EP96):Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continue to show signs of organization. Gradual development of this system is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form later this week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.Well South of the Southern Tip of Baja California:An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some slow development is possible as this system moves generally west-northwestward.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.$$Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2026-09-08 19:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000ABPZ20 KNHC 081735TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 8 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Lowell, located a couple hundred miles north-northwest of Lihue, Kauai, and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie, located several hundred miles west of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico are becoming better organized. Gradual development of this system is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form later this week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.Well South of the Southern Tip of Baja California:An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja California this weekend or early next week. Some slow development is possible as this system moves generally west-northwestward.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.$$Forecaster Evans/Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Graphics
2026-09-08 17:29:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2026 15:29:13 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Forecast Discussion Number 30
2026-09-08 16:40:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 2026 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 081439 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 2026 Marie's satellite presentation has degraded since the previous advisory. Infrared satellite imagery depicts very weak remnant convection in the southeast quadrant, while visible imagery shows that Marie's low-level center is exposed. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB classified Marie's intensity as 30 kt, while objective analysis from UW-CIMSS generally ranged from 25-36 kt. Given the most recent satellite trends, Marie's initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The storm is now classified as a post-tropical cyclone due to a lack of deep convection. The initial motion was estimated at 300/8 kt. Marie is expected to turn more northwestward as it finds itself wedged between a cutoff low descending from the northeast Pacific and a high pressure system centered over the southwestern US. Little was changed to the most recent NHC track forecast, which reflects only a slight leftward shift to bring the official track slightly closer to HCCA. Marie is forecast to weaken and dissipate in the next couple of days as the system moves over progressively cooler SSTs and into a drier airmass. The latest intensity forecast moved up dissipation time slightly due to Marie's current rate of weakening following the latest model trends. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 25.8N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 09/0000Z 26.8N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/1200Z 28.7N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/0000Z 31.2N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2026-09-08 16:39:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 081439 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026 1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 30N 130W 34 X 9( 9) 18(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 30N 130W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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