Home › tropical
 

Keywords :   


Tag: tropical

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-07-21 19:20:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 211720 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Douglas, located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Seven-E, located about 1600 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the southern coast of Mexico and portions of Central America later this week. Gradual development of this system will be possible over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: north weather pacific eastern

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-07-21 17:05:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 211505 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1105 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the status of the reconnaissance mission originally scheduled for the system near the Straits of Florida and to increase the formation chances for the system in the tropical Atlantic. Updated: A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today, the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon has been canceled. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Updated: Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure system located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to get better organized. If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on this system as a tropical depression later today. Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less favorable conditions should limit additional development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm Douglas Graphics

2020-07-21 16:40:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 14:40:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 15:31:38 GMT

Tags: graphics storm douglas tropical

 

Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-07-21 16:38:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211438 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 A recent SSMIS microwave pass indicated that Douglas's low-level center is located very near the head of a broken band of convection which curls around the southern, western, and northern side of the circulation. This center is also now embedded beneath a Central Dense overcast in infrared imagery, near an area of cold overshooting cloud tops. TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications have both risen to T3.5, and Douglas's initial intensity is therefore raised to 55 kt. Douglas continues to dip west-southwestward, or 255/13 kt, due to strong mid-level ridging to its north. A mid- to upper-level low located northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to retrograde westward over the next few days, which will allow the ridge to take on a more east-west orientation. As a result, Douglas is expected to turn westward later today and then move west-northwestward beginning overnight Wednesday into the weekend. The track guidance all agrees on this scenario, but there are some speed differences, bookended by slower GFS and HWRF solutions and a faster ECMWF solution. Overall, however, the new NHC forecast remains very close to the multi-model consensus aids, and no significant changes were made compared to the previous forecast, except maybe a slight northward adjustment on days 4 and 5. The low-shear, warm sea surface temperature environment within which Douglas is moving is a recipe for continued strengthening, potentially at a rapid rate, for the next 48 hours. The intensity guidance has been trending higher, and the latest SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are highlighting the increased chance of RI. For example, there is currently a 50/50 shot that Douglas's winds will increase by 25 kt within the next 24 hours, and a 40-50 percent chance of a 30-kt increase during that period. Based on this guidance, the new HCCA and Florida State Superensemble solutions, and the intensity consensus, the NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous cycle and now shows Douglas becoming a hurricane later today with a higher peak occurring in about 2 days. Since oceanic heat content falls to zero along Douglas's path by day 3, some gradual weakening is shown in the latter stages of the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 12.4N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 12.1N 126.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 12.6N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 14.9N 136.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 16.1N 139.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 18.0N 145.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 151.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion storm douglas

 

Summary for Tropical Storm Douglas (EP3/EP082020)

2020-07-21 16:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Jul 21 the center of Douglas was located near 12.4, -124.2 with movement WSW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tags: summary storm douglas tropical

 

Sites : [2001] [2002] [2003] [2004] [2005] [2006] [2007] [2008] [2009] [2010] [2011] [2012] [2013] [2014] [2015] [2016] [2017] [2018] [2019] [2020] next »