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Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-07-21 22:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 212035 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-21 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Jul 21 the center of Seven was located near 9.8, -40.4 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 1
2020-07-21 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 212035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 40.4W ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 40.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Wednesday, and that motion should continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-07-21 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 212035 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 40.4W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 40.4W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 40.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 10.1N 41.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 10.3N 43.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.3N 46.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.4N 49.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.6N 51.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.0N 54.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 12.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 13.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 40.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-21 19:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
580 ABNT20 KNHC 211738 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is expected to cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and tonight, move over the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure area located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continue to get better organized, and a tropical depression appears to be forming. If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on this system this afternoon. Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less favorable conditions should limit additional development of the system by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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