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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-07-22 04:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 126.7W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 126.7W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 126.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.6N 130.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.1N 136.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.4N 138.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 141.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.8N 147.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.4N 153.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 126.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-22 01:12:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 212312 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Jul 21 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Douglas, located a little over 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the southern coast of Mexico and portions of Central America later this week. Gradual development of this system will be possible late this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-22 01:11:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 212311 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Seven, located over the central tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southern Florida, and western Cuba. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is expected to move over the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Seven Graphics
2020-07-21 22:38:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 20:38:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 20:38:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-07-21 22:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212037 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 Douglas appears to have been trying to scour out a little bit of dry air on its western side during the day, although recent visible images suggest that deep convection is attempting to wrap entirely around the center. Because the convective pattern didn't change much from earlier, Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain T3.5/55 kt, so the initial intensity is held steady on this advisory. Strong ridging to the north of Douglas continues to impart a west-southwestward motion of the cyclone, or 255/13 kt. As mentioned this morning, the ridge is likely to take on a more east-west orientation as a mid-/upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands retrogrades westward, and this pattern evolution will allow Douglas to turn westward by tonight and then west-northwestward by late Wednesday. That general motion is forecast to continue for the remainder of the 5-day forecast period. The track guidance still showcases a faster ECMWF and slower GFS and HWRF solutions, and the overall envelope and model consensus aids have again nudged northward. The updated track forecast is therefore a little north of the previous one, mainly after 48 hours through day 5. Once deep convection can isolate Douglas's center from the ambient environment, low shear and warm sea surface temperatures of 28-29 degrees Celsius should allow intensification to resume. Despite this morning's hiatus in strengthening, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance continues to key in on a significant chance of RI during the next day or two. Therefore, the intensity forecast from this morning has been left unchanged, and it still generally lies between the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble, closer to the higher end of the guidance envelope. Douglas should reach its peak intensity in about 48 hours, after which time oceanic heat content values drop to zero, which should cause some gradual weakening. Based on a partial ASCAT-A pass, Douglas's tropical-storm-force wind radii were increased on the northern side. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 12.1N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 11.9N 127.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 12.1N 129.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 13.0N 131.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 14.4N 134.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 15.7N 137.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 16.9N 140.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 18.5N 146.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 19.0N 151.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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