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Tropical Depression Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-08-28 16:42:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 281441 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PAZ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Hernan (EP3/EP132020)
2020-08-28 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 the center of Hernan was located near 23.4, -109.1 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Hernan Public Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281441 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hernan Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...HERNAN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 109.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southeastern coast of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Hernan. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hernan was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 109.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, Hernan is forecast to move over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon or tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Hernan is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area tonight. The remnants are expected to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 16:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281441 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HERNAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.1W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.1N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-28 13:39:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 281139 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Laura, located inland over northeastern Arkansas. A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the eastern Caribbean islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. However, the southern part of the wave is expected to be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Tropical Depression Laura can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and https://www.hurricanes.gov. $$ Forecaster Beven
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