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Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-28 22:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER CLARION ISLAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 the center of Iselle was located near 18.8, -115.2 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 22:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 282032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...ISELLE PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 115.2W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 115.2 West. Iselle is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northward turn is expected by Saturday morning followed by a north-northwestward motion on Sunday morning. Afterward, Post-Tropical/Remnant Low Iselle is forecast to turn northwestward in the low-level flow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Iselle should become a tropical depression Saturday night, degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate early next week. An observing site at Clarion Island, MX recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/hr) and a gust of 48 mph (80 km/hr). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula through Sunday, and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-08-28 22:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 282032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 50 18(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 115W 50 5 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 22:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 282031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.2W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.2W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.7N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.4N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.1N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-28 19:47:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 281746 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Laura, located inland over southeastern Missouri. A tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the eastern Caribbean islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. However, the southern part of the wave is expected to be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Tropical Depression Laura can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and https://www.hurricanes.gov. $$ Forecaster Beven
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