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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-29 19:42:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 291742 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Iselle, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-29 16:34:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2020 14:34:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2020 15:24:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-29 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 291433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Iselle has changed little in organization since the last advisory, as the storm has a classic shear pattern in satellite imagery with the low-level center near the northeastern edge of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little in the last 6 h, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The cyclone has tracked a little to the right with the initial motion now north-northeastward or 025/6 kt. This should be short lived, and Iselle is expected to resume a northward motion later today or tonight. The northward motion should continue for another day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as Iselle becomes a weak and shallow system. The new forecast track is tweaked a little from the previous forecast based on the initial position and motion. Iselle is moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and it continues to experience easterly vertical shear. This combination should cause steady weakening, and the new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for the system to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to weaken to a trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 20.3N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 21.3N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 22.8N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 23.9N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1200Z 24.7N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0000Z 25.4N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-08-29 16:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 291433 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-29 16:32:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 the center of Iselle was located near 20.3, -114.7 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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