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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 38A
2020-11-10 00:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 092351 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 ...ETA SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 85.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 85.0 West. Eta is moving toward the southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will remain over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening will be possible tonight and Tuesday. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday and then continue through the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday morning: The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm)), with isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash flooding is possible across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the next several days. WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-10 00:45:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 092345 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a gale-force low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores has become a little more concentrated near the center and it appears to be becoming more distinct from the frontal boundary located to the northeast of the system. If these trends continue, a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form tonight or Tuesday while the system moves east or east-northeast over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Additional information on the central Atlantic gale area can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-10 00:31:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 092331 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-09 21:53:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2020 20:53:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2020 20:53:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 38
2020-11-09 21:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 092051 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 Eta's convective pattern now consists of mainly a compact ring of inner-core convection with cloud tops of -60C to -70C. The earlier main outer convective band located in the northeast quadrant has weakened considerably, and the inflow into that feature is now being shunted westward into Eta's inner-core region. Visible and water vapor satellite images also indicate that weak anticyclonic cirrus outflow has recently developed over the inner core. The last recon pass through Eta a few hours ago showed a pressure rise to 997 mb that was followed by a pressure decrease to 995 mb on the last pass. Both flight-level and SFMR-derived surface winds had also decreased and only supported around 45 kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is southwestward, or 235/14 kt. Mid- and upper-level water vapor images show a cut-off low located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Isle of Youth. This feature, in conjunction with a deep-layer ridge extending across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to produce northeasterly flow that will keep Eta moving southwestward for the next 24-36 hours. However, the cyclone will gradually slow down during that time as a broad deep-layer trough moving across the central and south-central U.S. weakens the ridge over the Gulf, causing Eta to stall or make a small loop around 36 hours. By 48-60 hours and beyond, the aforementioned trough is forecast to lift out to the northeast, allowing at least some of the Gulf ridge to build back in, slowing down Eta's poleward progress or even possibly trapping the cyclone over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The global and regional models are in very good agreement on the developing track scenario through about 72 hours, and then diverge significantly thereafter, with the bulk of the guidance taking a much weaker Eta northwestward or northward into strong shear conditions. However, the Navy COAMPS-TC model strengthens Eta to near major hurricane status and takes the cyclone northeastward, while the HMON model also intensifies the cyclone into a major hurricane, but leaves it trapped over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The latter two scenarios are considered to be outliers due to the abundance of very dry air surrounding Eta and an expected increase in the deep-layer shear to more than 25 kt by 96 and 120 hours. The new official forecast track is to the left or west of the previous advisory track, but not as far west as the consensus models, which take a significantly weaker and more shallow cyclone toward the north-central Gulf coast. Some re-strengthening appears more likely now that Eta has shed a lot of outer convective baggage and has become more compact, and has developed a donut ring of inner-core convection and some modest upper-level outflow in all quadrants. Eta's best opportunity for intensification should come during the next 36 hours when the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current and the deep-layer vertical wind shear gradually decreases to less than 10 kt. Although occasional intrusions of very dry air will prevent rapid intensification from occurring, some gradual strengthening seems to be in order given the other favorable environmental conditions and the cyclone's new smaller size. By 48 hours and beyond, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause steady weakening of the cyclone through end of the forecast period. However, if Eta takes a more northwestward track like some of the NHC model guidance is indicating, then the cyclone will get sheared more and weaken sooner than indicated in the official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and but is lower than intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA, which re-strengthen Eta to a 65-70 kt hurricane. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Additional flash flooding is possible across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida over the next several days. 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 23.7N 84.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 23.2N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 23.4N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 24.3N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 25.6N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 26.5N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 27.2N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 28.6N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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