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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-11-10 21:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 102037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 A central dense overcast has persisted near the center of Theta since yesterday, and although the clouds tops have warmed over the past several hours there remains a distinct curved band feature over the northern portion of the circulation. Water vapor imagery shows the mid- upper-level trough that was over the Azores is beginning to leave the cyclone behind. Based on these factors, and the earlier indications of a compact radius of maximum winds, it appears that Theta has completed a transition to a tropical cyclone. Even though the clouds tops have recently warmed, the overall structure of Theta has not degraded by much since the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 60 kt. The storm is moving 075/12 kt around the north side of a mid-level ridge. This feature should continue to steer Theta in a generally east-northeastward motion for the next few days. Late in the forecast period, the ridge will begin to weaken as another trough approaches from the northwest. This should cause the cyclone to slow its forward motion and begin to turn to the northeast. The latest model guidance has once again slowed down and the new NHC track forecast now lies between the previous one and the various consensus models. Although Theta will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable for the next day or so, which should be supportive of deep convection. Therefore, little change is strength is indicated during that time. Some weakening is anticipated later in the forecast period as the airmass becomes more stable. By the end of the 5-day forecast period, the combination of the cooler waters and an approaching trough should result in extratropical transition. The NHC intensity forecast has changed little from the previous one and remains near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 29.4N 36.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 29.8N 34.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 30.3N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 30.8N 30.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 31.5N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 32.1N 25.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 32.6N 23.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 33.2N 20.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 34.4N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-11-10 21:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 102035 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-10 21:34:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 9:00 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 the center of Theta was located near 29.4, -36.2 with movement ENE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 4
2020-11-10 21:34:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 102034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 ...THETA TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 36.2W ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 36.2 West. Theta is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow weakening is expected by later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-11-10 21:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 102033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 36.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 36.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 36.7W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.8N 34.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.3N 32.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.8N 30.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N 28.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.1N 25.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.6N 23.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 33.2N 20.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.4N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 36.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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