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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 41
2020-11-10 15:51:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 885 WTNT24 KNHC 101451 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.1N 85.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 85.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.0N 85.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.9N 85.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.6N 85.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.2N 85.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.6N 86.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 30.1N 86.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 85.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-10 12:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 11:48:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 09:24:52 GMT
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-10 12:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 101146 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico just offshore the coast of western Cuba, and on Subtropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Theta are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Theta are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-10 12:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... As of 6:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10 the center of Eta was located near 22.6, -85.3 with movement S at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 40A
2020-11-10 12:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101146 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 600 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...ETA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 85.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 85.3 West. Eta has been drifting southward this morning, but it is expected to become stationary again later today. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today and tonight: Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm). Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida today and tonight. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba today. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Latto
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