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Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
2016-09-02 16:53:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Sep 2016 14:53:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Sep 2016 14:51:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 44
2016-09-02 16:52:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 021452 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 Data from a recent ASCAT overpass indicate that the storm is a little stronger than previously estimated. The advisory intensity is set to 60 kt based on the scatterometer winds. Vertical shear over the system is currently around 20 kt and is forecast to increase to near 30 kt within the next day or so, and the cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler waters. Weakening is forecast in agreement with the IVCN intensity model consensus. Gaston should weaken to a remnant low before becoming absorbed by a frontal system in 48 hours or less. Based on the scatterometer data and conventional geostationary satellite fixes, the motion is east-northeastward or 070/16. Gaston should continue on an east-northeastward track, following the flow on the south side of the mid-latitude westerlies, until dissipation. The official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 39.1N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 39.5N 29.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 40.7N 27.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 42.5N 24.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2016-09-02 16:52:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 021451 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PONTA DELGADA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-09-02 16:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON PASSING NEAR THE WESTERN AZORES... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 2 the center of GASTON was located near 39.1, -32.0 with movement ENE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 44
2016-09-02 16:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 021451 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 ...GASTON PASSING NEAR THE WESTERN AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.1N 32.0W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flores and Corvo in the western Azores * Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 32.0 West. Gaston is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near the western Azores today, and pass north of the central Azores tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Gaston is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the western Azores today and in the central Azores tonight. RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the western and central Azores through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are affecting the Azores and will continue into Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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