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Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
2016-09-03 05:11:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2016 02:39:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2016 03:06:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 46
2016-09-03 04:39:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030238 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 A 2222 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that Gaston was producing maximum winds of 30-35 kt in its southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is therefore lowered to 35 kt, but Gaston won't be a tropical storm for much longer. The last bit of deep convection dissipated around 1800 UTC, so the cyclone is likely to be declared post-tropical Saturday morning. The remnant low is likely to maintain 30-kt winds until it dissipates in 36 hours, based on guidance from the global models. The initial motion is 070/14 kt. The remnant low is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate away from the Azores during the next 24 hours ahead of an approaching cold front. The track models agree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 40.1N 28.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 41.1N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/0000Z 43.3N 23.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46
2016-09-03 04:38:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 03 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 030238 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC SAT SEP 03 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-09-03 04:38:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON STILL WEAKENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SATURDAY MORNING... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 2 the center of GASTON was located near 40.1, -28.7 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 46
2016-09-03 04:38:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030237 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 ...GASTON STILL WEAKENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SATURDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.1N 28.7W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM N OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flores and Corvo in the western Azores * Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 28.7 West. Gaston is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). An east-northeastward and then northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will be moving way from the Azores. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Gaston is forecast to become a remnant low Saturday morning. The remnant low should then dissipate by Sunday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions could still occur over portions of the central Azores during the next few hours. RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce less than an inch of additional rain across the Azores through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are affecting the Azores and will continue into Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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