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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 40
2016-09-01 17:00:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 011459 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016 Despite a degraded satellite presentation, a 1302 UTC ASCAT-B pass over Gaston showed a large area of hurricane force winds southeast of the center and peak winds of 75 kt, and that will serve as the initial intensity for this advisory. Weakening is forecast as Gaston moves across the 26C SST isotherm later today and the vertical shear is expected to increase to 20-30 kt by 48 hours. Gaston should fall below hurricane strength tonight and gradually lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours. The low is forecast to dissipate by 72 hours, as shown in the global models. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the new IVCN intensity consensus aid. The hurricane is moving quickly east-northeastward, 070/21. Gaston will continue moving generally east-northeastward within the mid- latitude westerlies through dissipation. The new NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and the multi-model consensus TVCN. Based on the current forecast, the Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 37.6N 40.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 38.4N 37.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 39.1N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 39.7N 29.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 41.0N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-09-01 16:57:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AZORES... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 1 the center of GASTON was located near 37.6, -40.6 with movement ENE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 40
2016-09-01 16:57:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 011457 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016 ...GASTON MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.6N 40.6W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM W OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flores and Corvo in the western Azores * Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 40.6 West. Gaston is moving toward the east-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with a decrease in forward speed expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near the western Azores on Friday and pass north of the central Azores on Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Gaston is expected to become a tropical storm by early Friday before it reaches the western Azores. Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the south and east of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the western Azores on Friday and in the central Azores Friday night. RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, primarily over the western Azores, through the weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Gaston will begin affecting the Azores tonight and continue into Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2016-09-01 16:56:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 01 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 011456 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC THU SEP 01 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 1 51(52) 26(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 9( 9) 20(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 40
2016-09-01 16:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 01 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 011455 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC THU SEP 01 2016 CORRECTED FOR INITIAL INTENSITY AND WIND RADII AND 12-HR WIND RADII FORECAST. CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF FAIAL...PICO...GRACIOSA...SAO JORGE...AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES * FAIAL...PICO...GRACIOSA...SAO JORGE...AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 40.6W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 160SE 140SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 40.6W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 42.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.4N 37.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 50SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 39.1N 32.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 110SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 39.7N 29.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 41.0N 26.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.6N 40.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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