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Tropical Depression Five Public Advisory Number 2

2021-07-01 04:54:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010254 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 46.3W ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 46.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). An even faster motion to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and the tropical depression is expected to become a tropical storm early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning late Thursday night into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Thursday night into Friday. RAINFALL: The system will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-07-01 04:53:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 184 WTNT25 KNHC 010253 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 46.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 46.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 45.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.5N 49.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 54.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 59.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.7N 65.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.5N 69.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.3N 73.8W...NEAR THE COAST OF HAITI MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 78.6W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 46.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-07-01 01:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 302346 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, located more than 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles are associated with tropical wave located over the far eastern Caribbean Sea. Although development of this system is not expected while it moves westward across the Caribbean Sea, locally heavy rains will continue over the Lesser Antilles tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Graphics

2021-07-01 01:42:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 23:42:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 21:29:06 GMT

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Public Advisory Number 1A

2021-07-01 01:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 302342 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 44.6W ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * St. Lucia * Barbados * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 44.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or early Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Papin

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