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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-07-02 04:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 020252 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 7(27) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 8(29) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 12(24) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 4(23) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) 1(21) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 12(44) 1(45) X(45) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 19(19) 45(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PONCE PR 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 2 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) AVES 34 1 47(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) DOMINICA 34 7 34(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MARTINIQUE 34 28 40(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) MARTINIQUE 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 50 45(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SAINT LUCIA 50 1 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 35 57(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) SAINT VINCENT 50 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAINT VINCENT 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BARBADOS 50 29 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BARBADOS 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-02 04:51:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Jul 1 the center of Elsa was located near 11.8, -55.9 with movement WNW at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 6
2021-07-02 04:51:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020251 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 ...ELSA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 55.9W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the southern border of Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 55.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba. Recent satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 24 hours. Recent satellite wind data also indicates the tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly to the north of the center. NOAA Buoy 41040, located more than 200 miles north of the center of Elsa, recently reported a wind gust of 38 mph (61 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, and are possible in Jamaica Saturday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-07-02 04:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020250 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI EASTWARD TO PUNTA PALENQUE * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI... AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 55.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 55.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.8N 59.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.5N 64.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 69.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 73.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 76.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.8W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 81.7W...OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 28.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 55.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-02 01:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA HEADING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND A PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Jul 1 the center of Elsa was located near 11.4, -54.7 with movement WNW at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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elsa
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