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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-23 07:07:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
950 ABNT20 KNHC 230507 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo, located a little over 1000 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Eight, located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-23 07:06:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 230506 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 22 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Douglas, located a little over 1500 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico and portions of Central America by this weekend. Some development of this system is possible early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-23 04:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 02:54:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 02:54:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eight Graphics
2020-07-23 04:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 02:53:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 02:53:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-23 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230242 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Surface observations and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico has developed a closed circulation and a well-defined center. In addition, recent satellite images show an area of deep convection expanding over the center. Based on those observations, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the earlier reconnaissance data. The initial motion is an uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. A subtropical ridge to the northeast of the depression should cause it to continue moving in that general direction through Friday as it tracks across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A slight turn to the left is expected Friday night and Saturday as a ridge builds to the north of the system, taking the center of cyclone across the Texas coast and then inland over southern Texas. The models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus models. The depression is expected to be in generally light to moderate wind shear conditions, in a fairly moist environment, and over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days, so some strengthening seems likely. However, since the depression is still in its formative stage, the rate of strengthening should be gradual. After the storm crosses the coast, steady weakening should commence. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA guidance. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. 2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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