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Tropical Depression Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-07-23 16:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 231449 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 9(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) X(20) 1(21) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) 1(18) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-07-23 16:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 231449 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 90.7W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 90.7W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 90.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.7N 91.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.4N 93.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.8N 94.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.0N 96.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.9N 99.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.5N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-23 16:47:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 14:47:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 14:47:14 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-23 16:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO FACES AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... ...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Jul 23 the center of Gonzalo was located near 9.6, -48.3 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 8
2020-07-23 16:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231445 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO FACES AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... ...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 48.3W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 48.3 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and move across the islands Saturday and Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo could become a hurricane tonight or on Friday. Gonzalo is a small storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by midday Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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