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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 4
2020-07-23 22:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 232046 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 90.7W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for portions of the Watch area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 90.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a topical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area by Friday night or Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday night or Saturday morning. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Monday along the Gulf Coast of the United States from Louisiana to south Texas, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor-to-moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by the tropical cyclone are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-07-23 22:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 232046 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 24(25) 4(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 12(12) 34(46) 6(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) X(21) 1(22) X(22) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 10(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 16(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 12(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-23 22:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 20:42:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 20:42:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-07-23 22:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 232041 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 Scatterometer data received just after the release of the previous advisory only showed winds of 40-45 kt, but given Gonzalo's small size, it's unlikely that the resolution of the instrument was able to capture the maximum winds. Even correcting for that, Gonzalo's winds were lowered to 50 kt on the 2 PM intermediate advisory, and that still looks good now with satellite intensity estimates ranging from 35 kt to 55 kt. Structure-wise, deep convection has redeveloped on top of Gonzalo's center, so the storm is not ready to give up its fight quite yet. There is still greater-than-normal uncertainty in Gonzalo's forecast intensity due to its small size and how it will behave in an environment of relatively light shear and warm sea surface temperatures counterbalanced by a lot of dry air. The statistical and dynamical hurricane models continue to show strengthening, while several of the global models, in particular the ECMWF and UKMET, still show Gonzalo weakening and opening up into a trough near or after it passes the Windward Islands. Based on the lower initial intensity and the latest guidance, the new official forecast has been lowered slightly, but it still brings Gonzalo to the hurricane threshold in 36-48 hours. Either way, Gonzalo's small size makes it susceptible to short-term changes in intensity that cannot be reflected in the official forecast. There is more confidence that weakening will occur after Gonzalo moves over the Caribbean Sea, with even the GFS showing the system becoming a trough. Given that, dissipation is now shown in the forecast at day 5. Gonzalo's initial motion is westward, or 275/11 kt. There has been no change in the track forecast reasoning, with Gonzalo expected to accelerate toward the west and west-northwest through the forecast period. The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered, showing Gonzalo's center crossing somewhere through the Windward Islands between 48-60 hours. Some of the models shifted northward a bit on this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has therefore been nudged in that direction close to the multi-model consensus aids, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble. However, users should not focus on these relatively small shifts in the forecast track from cycle to cycle, and for the Windward Islands in particular, consider that 48-60 hour forecast points can be off by an average of 60-80 nm. Key Messages 1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase, however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will be when it moves across the islands. 2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect some of the islands, and additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or early Friday. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 9.8N 49.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 10.0N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 10.5N 53.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 11.1N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 13.0N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 13.8N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 14.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-07-23 22:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 232041 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 1(36) X(36) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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